Treasury Yields Mixed

Published July 3, 2026

Treasury yields rose early in the week as investors waited for the latest job hiring numbers from the private sector. Yields edged down at the end of the week after employment data pointed to a cooling labor market.

On Wednesday, ADP reported that private sector hiring rose less than expected in June, indicating a softening in the labor market. The payroll processing company detailed that private payrolls grew by 98,000 in June, below the unrevised gain of 122,000 experienced in May and below analysts’ expectations of an increase of 110,000.

“The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand,” said chief economist at ADP, Nela Richardson. “We know it is taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries. For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of June 29 at 4.37% and traded as high as 4.50% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.87% and traded as high as 4.99% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment reached 215,000 for the week ending June 27. This was down 1,000 from the prior week’s revised level and below analysts’ expectations of 225,000. Continuing unemployment claims increased by 2,000 to 1.81 million.

"We are seeing very encouraging signs in the labor market," said senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, Matthew Martin. “Not quite enough to really translate into consumers and households feeling it."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the holiday week of 6/29 at 4.49%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.97%.